Skip navigation.

For the 2008-09 Ten Year Forecast, we are creating a massively multiplayer forecasting game called SuperStruct. The goal of this site is to aggregate signals of five key superthreats that drive the game:

Quarantine: an infectious disease with an acute onset and a long
chronic phase followed by premature death (like tuberculosis) produces
a bottom-up quarantine response, engaging what we call open-source
armies

Ravenous: global commercial food production is seriously disrupted by a combination of food safety scares, competition with biofuels and plant-based materials, failure of the trucking industry, and localist movements

Power Struggle: carbon markets become significant drivers of wall street but volatility in fuel prices, including biofuels, leads to frequent deaths in extreme heat and cold waves

Outlaw Planet: illicit global markets combine with mass griefing attacks to challenge the mobile internet infrastructure

Generation Exile: in the face of rapid melting of the ice caps, uncertainty about the future value of large swaths of real estate undermines recovery of the U.S. housing industry and drives anticipatory migration worldwide, while climate-related disasters displace populations and lead to homesteading in disaster-prone areas

At the same time, we want to understand the how social, technological, and economic innovations that are likely to shape responses to these threats. In particular, we're interested in the following scenarios:

Big Plans: The resurgence of large-scale planning in the civic sphere; urban systems; transportation; carbon mitigation; integrated public health; water management

Translocalism: The evolution of localism in a global environment; new forms of endemism; biodiversity; cultural diversity; new nationalism

• Bottom-Up Accounting: The intersection of new kinds of accounting with bottom-up processes for accounting/accountability; carbon counting, dynamic materials flow accounting (MFA) in natural systems

Energy in Matter: New ways of generating and storing energy in materials; new packaging; new ways of transporting & transferring energy

Regeneration: A look at the very youngest generation worldwide; fertility patterns; educational innovation; youth incarceration; the regeneration of criminal population in youth

FoxP2: This is a symbolic title for the intersection of genetic science, neuroscience, and humn culture; FoxP2 is the gene recently identified as linked to language, which underlies our ability to cooperate and cognize the world; also points to alternate nonverbal forms of cognition

To add a signal, click here.

 

 

Richard Posner on preconceptions and anticipating disasters

Richard Posner writes in this week's Chronicle of Higher Education about the current financial crisis, and why experts didn't take early warnings about it seriously.

The financial crisis, when it finally struck the nation full-blown in September 2008, caught the government, the financial community, and the...

SUPERSTRUCT - A Sneak Preview of The Final Threat

What does the world of 2019 look like? Find out now.

The full report from the Global Extinction Awareness System is LIVE -- and you can read it here for the first time anywhere. Find out exactly why the human species may face extinction by the year 2042 – and what we can do about it.

With this report, the Superstruct...

Re-engineering the Internet

During a workshop at IFTF this week, I offered a forecast that there is at least a 50% probability of a fundamental re-engineering of the internet. Here's a bit of detail on this forecast and why I think this last week has been a critical turning point.

Domain Name Services, DNS, like most of the Gen One Internet is a system built on cooperation. DNS servers have a narrow function to...

Superstruct! Play the game, invent the future.

This fall, the Institute for the Future invites you to play Superstruct, the world’s first massively multiplayer forecasting game. It’s not just about envisioning the future—it’s about inventing the future. Everyone is welcome to join the game. Watch for the opening volley of threats and survival stories, September 2008.

 

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

...

Syndicate content